Metrok 自 08 年起, 业绩逐渐下滑. 这家在 KAJANG 家喻户晓的发展商, 是否能恢复昔日的光彩?
Metrok 旗下拥有 4-5 项生意. 这里就不多解释, 可以从其年报中得知. 主要的还是房地产. 虽然业绩近两年下滑, 但整体而言, METROK 自上市以来, 也不曾亏损过. 可见其管理层的实力不容置疑.
房地产的股票, 大部分在大马股市都没有得到很好的估价. METROK 也一样. 现在的股价才区区 ~40% 的 NTA. 用 40仙买入值 RM1.00 的东西, 这种算数简单易算. 更何况, METROK 所拥有的资产, 是长期会增值的土地, 而且, 更是已经很多年未重新估价的土地. - 其一.
其二, 虽然 METROK 不是股息王, 但也稳定派发 5仙左右的股息.
其三, 据年报指出, METROK 最新的房产都得到非常好的预售. 09 风暴, METROK 依旧稳健. 2010 多项的房产刺激配套, 相信对 METROK 的房产更有利.
如果 METROK 2010 之后, 业务还是专注在原本的范围, 那就没有什么看头了. 而 METROK 未来真正的爆发力就是在印尼的种植计划!
METROK 在两年前正式进军种植业. 当初的决定, 相信另很多人都掉眼睛. 因为这不是 METROK 的强项. 不过, 我相信种植业也不是很难. 最重要是规模要够大, 才能有有效地经济效应. 以 METROK 稳健的作风和强稳的现金流, 这不是难题. 只是要物色价廉物美的土地, 可能就比较棘手.
现在的种植技术已经很成熟. 以前可能需要 5 年才结果, 现在 3年就有了. 回顾时间, 就是管理层在年报提起的时间表 > 2H2010. 成熟的棕油产量, 平均是 19 MT/HA. METROK 已种植的面积是 10,000 HA.
未成熟的棕油, 就以 12MT 大概计算:
12 X 10,000 X RM2300 = RM276 MIL!
METROK 09 年的总营业额才 RM370 MIL. 当 15,000 HA 的土地都种植完成, 这笔 "油" 钱, 将把 METROK 的整体业绩推向历史高峰, 营业额 1倍, 甚至 2 倍跳都不是问题!
再看回盈利. 一般的种植公司, 净利虽然是被棕油价牵制, 但也处于 20% 左右. 那么, RM276 MIL X 20% = RM55MIL!
METROK 的 RECORD PROFIT 是 07 年的 RM61MIL. 哈哈, 这算数简单明了吧!
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谢谢一个朋友的提醒, 19MT/HA 应该是 FFB. OIL 的话大约是 3.5. 所以, 大概计算, 营业额的贡献要减 5倍 > RM55MIL. 净利为 RM11MIL.
Metrok has plan to get its palm oil business listed, just like success transformer...
Just wonder how much an investor could earn by investing in the mother company.
Looking at SEB selling at 0.85cents with 0.50cents par value, RM5.5m paid to STC and 2900 bonus share for every 100 SESB share held. I don't see any real benefit an STC investor could get from the listing of SEB... The NTA of STC will be greater once SEB value is re-evaluated...
Probably the return could be expected in a longer term? How do you interprete the effect of the listing of SEB to STC's shareholder?
i think that is really depends on management. For SEB case, the is an allocation of 1-15 "Restricted Offer" to STC shareholder. I dun think that is FREE, but at least at special price. Frankly, I am not impress with STC, too stingy! Anyway, at least STC share price is well supported with solid earning. 2nd-ly, for current market, to find an undervalue and higher confident can generate reasonable return in short term, STC should be a good consideration (for SEB offering). 3rd-ly, SEB actually has good fundamental and future prospect. So, if the market perceive it, SEB may attrack buying and potentially go higher upon listing.
So, at the bottom line, I am not worry STC share price to go down. At optimistic view, as STC shareholder, I should get offer price for SEB, which I would consider it as an bonus. Once SEB been listed, I think I would sell STC, and hold SEB at very minimum cost, hopefully.
For Metrok, I believed if they listed their plantation, the management should give better offer compared to STC. 1st, Metrok has good dividen paid record. 2nd, unlike STC, Metrok has stronger balance sheet which allow him to give more to shareholder.
OIL 的话大约是 3.5. 所以, 大概计算, 营业额的贡献要减 5倍 > RM55MIL. 净利为 RM11MIL.
这部分不是很明白，可以多加解释吗？
19MT/HA is for FFB. CPO is about 3.5MT/HA. But as METROK's oil palm still very young, so, should consider another discount.
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