(127) 断章取义

很多时候，不知是否有些有心人想要出货，就会断章取义，引用一些有利的资料，却又不完全的报道。。y-o-y 是好，但 q-o-q 的情况就不一样了。如果是经济风暴前，这样的成绩就糟糕了。但现在的情形，应该可以另当别论吧。。。

总之，不可以净看表面。。。。

(126) 另一盘新生意即将诞生。。。

最近退伤好了，回去了那个属于我的运动世界。
才赫然发现，一年半的时间里头，很多看似不起眼的东西，价格已经涨得太夸张了。
更有网友比喻，这个普通的运动，消费越来越接近 Golf 了。

就这样，令我萌生了另一盘生意的可能性。
于是，我联络了外国的厂家，运输公司，再结合志同道和的朋友，就这样一步步的开始了。。。

供应有了，销售网络有了。

接下来就是要坚定品质和价格的可行性。 这个。。。应该很快的，希望最迟在一月中，就可以决定。再来，就是用回我另一间公司伙伴教我的方法 〉〉〉商标注册！

虽然感觉有点对不起原本的伙伴。但是他们对这运动完全没热诚。也是很难搞起来的。

最理想的就是，将娱乐，兴趣，化为生意的动力。这样，我相信什么都有可能！

(125) 银根开始松动？

BDI 指数随着信贷危机的爆发，指数自 7 月份开始就有如自由落体般的直属下滑。每天暴跌接近 10% 至最近的 600 点左右。

这是最近 1 个月的 BDI 走势。似乎开始从底部回弹。

更清楚点，看看最近一个星期的走势，开始出现了直线上扬。

这是否意味着信贷开始松动？各国政府的振兴经济配套开始流入市场？

(124) 2008 股神股东大会

A Must Read For Traders or Investors or Human..........

I had the good fortune to attend the 2008- Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders meeting at Omaha , Nebraska a few weeks back.

It was a wonderful experience listening to and learning from the Master Investor- Warren Buffett himself and all I can say is that he stands alone as the reigning deity of financial world's Mt Olympus!

The degree of humility and composure he exhibited, although he is the richest and most well respected human is stunning! I tried to take some notes and would like to share with you some of the best questions and answers which came across during the conversation between we mortals and God.

Having read about him, observed him and worshipped him for a few years now, I think it is reasonable to believe that this guy is exactly what he seems: a plain-speaking, tee totalling man of uncrackable integrity who works really, really hard and sticks to his investing and management principles through boom and bust which makes him a freak of nature since he is above normal human tendencies. He is like a comet streaking through the heavens every 75 years or so.

The questions the shareholders threw at him for 7 continuous hours ranged from finances, life, religion, career, politics, sports and several other streams. And he answered everything with a Zen like calm and confidence.Even if you are least bothered about investments and finances, I insist, Please read on.

What does it take to become a successful investor? Brilliance or Smartness?
Neither, Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that gets other people into trouble in investing.

When do you deicide to invest in a firm?
The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble. We want to buy them when they're on the operating table. (Mr. Buffett bought Coke when it had its biggest fiasco after launching New Coke; he bought American Express when it went through a loss making phase in the early 60's)

What do you look for in people when they come to sell their firms to you?
I don't look for the usual credentials such as an MBA, a pedigree(Harvard, Wharton), or cash reserves or market cap of their firm. What I look for is just a passion in their eyes; I think that's the key. A person who is hungry will always do well. I prefer it when people even after selling stay on and work for the firm; they are people who can't wait to get off their bed to get to work. Passionis everything; there is no replacement for innate interest.

Mr. Buffett, you told us that Berkshire Hathaway has $ 45 Billion in cash. Why aren't you investing?
Up until a few years back I had more ideas than money. Now I have more money than ideas.

When do you plan to retire?
I love my job; I love it so much that I tap dance to work. Mrs. B, the founder of Nebraska Furniture Mark worked until she was 104, she died within 6 months of her retirement, that's a lesson to all my managers, don't retire! personally am going to work 6-7 years after I die, probably that's what they mean when they say- "Thinking out of the Box"!!

Why do stock market crashes happen?
Because of human nature for greed and insecurity. The 1970s were unbelievable. The world wasn't going to end, but businesses were being given away. Human nature has not changed. People will always behave in a manic-depressive way over time. They will offer great values to you."

What are the things that are taught wrong in Business school and the corporate world?
I like such open ended questions, I think Business schools should refrain from teaching their wards about profit making and profit making alone, it gives a sense of 1 dimensional outlook to the young students that loss is a curse..In reality, in the corporate world, failure and loss making are inevitable. The capital market without loss is like Christianity without hell. I think they should teach the student on how to buy a business, how to value a business? Not just on how to determine the price of a business. Because price is what you pay, value is what you get.

Do you still hate Technology stocks?
With Coke I can come up with a very rational figure for the cash it will generate in the future. But with the top 10 Internet companies, how much cash will they produce over the next 25 years? If you say you don't know, then you don't know what it is worth and you are speculating, not investing. All I know is that I don't know, and if I don't know, I don't invest."

How to think about Investing?
The first investment primer was written by Aesop in 600 B.C. He said, 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.' Aesop forgot to say when you get the two in the bush and what interest rates are investing is simply figuring out your cash outlay (the bird in the hand) and comparing it to how many birds are in the bush and when you get them."

How do you feel after donating $ 40 Billion to the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation? You are a hero to us!
I feel nothing. I haven't sacrificed anything in life. I have had a good life. I donated after I turned 75. I think I admire those people who sacrifice their time, share their food and home, as the people to be emulated not me. Besides, what is money before a man's life?

What do you think are the pitfalls in donation?
I have never donated a dime to churches or other such organizations; I need to believe in something before I end up doing that. I have been observing the Bill & Melinda Gates foundation for years now and I am confident they will do a fantastic job of making use of the money. I am a big believer in Outsourcing, others believed in me as an Investor and gave their hard earned money to invest. I believe in Bill Gates, he is a better donor than me.

Why do you work from Omaha and not Wall Street , New York ?
Wall Street is the only place where people alight from Rolls Royce to get advised by people who use the Public transportation system. You seem to be so well read, tell us how it all started. My father was a stock broker, so we had all these financial books in our library. He introduced me to those classics and I got into them. I am lucky that my father was not a fan of Playboy! Reading is the best habit you can get. Well, you can learn from teachers too, and have mentors but there are so many constraints attached- they will talk fast, talk slow, they might talk like a pro or they might be terrible communicators. Books are a different animal altogether, I love reading! The beauty about reading and learning is that the more you learn the more you want to learn. People who join Berkshire Hathaway seldom leave.

How do you get along well with all your executives?
I try to get quality people. I always say - Hire someone in your organization who is better than you are. If you do that, you build a company of giants. If you get people worse than yourself, you build a company of dwarfs. And do not try to do everything yourself. Delegate the jobs and look out of the window. The results will come. That's how you build institutions. It happens only when you empower others, believe in others. I am an investor, I am very secured at that, I have no clue how to make Coca-Cola or how to dole out credit cards (Mr .Buffett owns 8% of Coca-Cola and 13 % of American Express).I understand the wisdom of the aphorism that you cannot please all the people all the time. Of Course, you will always find qualities that you don't like in people around you, but if you observe carefully the love of the work unites you both. There is no point in beingobsessive about a bad quality in a person, whom you otherwise respect.

I am a small time businessman from Dallas , Texas , what do I need to do to hit big time?
Be patient, Achieving your financial goals and dreams will not happen overnight. As much as we would all really love to accomplish our goals in a few years, this is an ongoing process. Defining your financial goals is not a one-time task; you need to keep adding new plans at different stagesin your life. We all admire the skills of Olympic ice skaters, pro golfers, and concert pianists. But do we remember that they didn't acquire their skills overnight? They had to practice hours on end for years to achieve their dreams. The key to success is to continue learning throughout your life with a voracious appetite.

I think it is marvelous that you have had a golden run with investing, how did you do that?
My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. Besides, I call investing the greatest job in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate; the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! And nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. You're dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it's like a great big casino and every one else is boozing. If you can stick with drinking Coke, you should be OK. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue insight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression, most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no oneelse is. You can't buy what is popular and do well.

Mr. Buffett you have seen so many crashes and recessions, your take on facing recessions and stock market crashes?
If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians. Every scenario is different. But always remember, Tough times do not last. Tough people do.

What is the 1 biggest advice you would impart to a young investor like me?
Think for a moment that you are given a car and told this is the only car you would get for the rest of your life. Then you would make sure that you car is taken care of well, it is oiled and detailed every now and then. You would make sure that it never gets rusted, and you would garage it. Think of yourself as that car. You just get 1 body, 1 mind and 1 soul. Take care of it well. Invest in yourself that would be my advice.

You personally know many of the Financial executives who are engineers of the current turmoil in the financial world, surprisingly even after record losses, those executives receive astronomical salaries and bonuses and arrogantly declare that they deserve it, why dint you advice them frommaking such decisions and what's your view on their justification for their pay?
I like sharing my ideas but don't like imposing my ideas on anybody. It doesn't make sense and is a waste of time. If somebody has decided that they know everything that is there to know, nobody can help them. The best way to learn and succeed is to know that we know nothing. There is an entire universe out there and still some of us think we can know everything. In the world of investing a few people after making some money tend to imagine they are invincible and great. This is the worst thing that could happen to any investor, because it surely means that the investor will end up taking unnecessary risks and end up losing everything – arrogance, ego and overconfidence are very lethal. Personally I don't feel too comfortable with too much extravagance, because I always think like an investor. My thought process doesn't see a lot of value in a fancy car or a designer suit. Thinking like an investor always is very important to bring in a sense of discipline and focus. Before reading balance sheets and investing you need to make sure your outlook and mindset is that of an investor. Never let ego, arrogance and over-confidence control you - not just as an investor but also as a human being. You will never have internal peace if you are unable to look at everybody around you with love, compassion and understanding. Irrespective of who the person is, he or shecan teach you something you don't know. I have learnt so much from people all around me and I wouldn't have been able to learn all these wonderful things if I had not spoken to them with a smile. To quote Sir Isaac Newton- If I have seen farther than others, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants.

It was a 7 hour conversation and I could just capture some of the best questions and answers. As 37,000+ dazed, amazed and grateful shareholders trooped out of the stadium after the meeting, I found myself recalling one of my favorite quotes- "A man has to learn that he cannot command things, but that he can command himself; that he cannot coerce the wills of others, but that he can mold and master his own will: and things serve him who serves truth; people seek guidance of him who is master of himself".

(123) 其实，还有很多看不到的。。

鱼浆，只是半制成品。小鱼切头后，放入挤压器，鱼肉就会被挤压出来，鱼骨就另外分开。鱼肉再加上一些化学品，就是鱼浆。

鱼浆可以再用来制成很多不同的食品，包括鱼丸，鱼饼，甚至酿豆腐。

生产鱼浆用的小鱼 （千万别以为真的是西刀鱼），多数在较浅海地带。当然在别的国家用什么鱼，我就不懂了。不过，这鱼类必须能够达到经济效应，不然就很难立足。

QL 多数用的鱼，我们沿海人叫 “目力”。

大多数消费者很奇怪，买鱼丸时，喜欢看起来超白的鱼丸。对比较灰色的鱼丸，他们会觉得不太干净。还有，就是鱼丸的弹性。其实，这其中有些奥妙在。我也不方便透露太多。

我只能说的，就是，纯西刀鱼做的鱼浆，色泽比较灰。这是鱼肉的关系，不是干净与否。但是，不可能用西刀鱼做原料，因为太贵，不符合经济效益。

所以，“目力”就是最好的选择。这类鱼，鱼肉很贴身。鱼骨比较多。所以，商业价值不高。价格自然受到限制。而这类鱼，繁殖也快，量也较多。

话说回头，鱼浆价跌，鱼丸鱼饼价保持。这代表什么？全利的盈利方面，是鱼浆影响大，还是鱼丸鱼饼？或许很多人还不知道，它的生产线是 Flexible 的。还有，就像我之前提过，QL 拥有定价能力，更有定购买价能力。下霹雳 10 大渔村，再远至 Setiawan, Pangkor 一代，只有 QL 出信通知 “目力”的行情价，没有鱼行可以向它讨价还价的。何况，它自己也有渔船。

一只针，两头尖。
还有一点，企业的净利可以来自销售成长，利润率提高，也可以来自成本控制。其半港的总厂，是用生物燃料。也因为踏足棕油业，管理层也开始运用棕油外壳作为生物燃料，物尽其用。就像它生产鱼浆的剩料，鱼头，鱼骨等都用来再加工为家禽饲料。这个生物燃料可以为 QL 节省 RM150/tonne. 半港的目前产量是 10,000 tonne。即将提高一倍至 20,000 tonnes. 也就是未来每年省下 3 百万。

(122) QL Reply to Shareholder

看了那篇华文报道，我写了信去问管理层，因为我不是很相信鱼浆价格会大幅滑落。得到的回复如下：

我的问题：
Dear Freddie,I am a public investor of QL.
I come accrossed an article about QL's surimi price on chinese paper recently. The article said that QL's surimi products' price from Oct-08 onwards, especially for foriegn market to Japan, Korea, Singapore and etc has drop as much as 43%. Appreciate if you can clarify on this matter. Thank you.

答复：
Dear Cxxx,
Sorry for the delay in replying, I aws away on leave. The Chinese translation was badly done. Surimi prices follow crude oil prices pattern and after 6 mths is now back to normal. It doesn't really affect our margin as we reduces prices of fish bought from fishermen whn surimi prices dropped. Please see attched report by OSK.

FReddie

(121) Is time for Zhulian

Zhulian, 曾经出现又被我卖掉的股，现在再次被我收回来了。

我曾评过，它什么都好，就是一上市就把董事费提高一倍，弄得我心中总对它有条刺。

前几天和一位朋友谈过。问了意见，感觉有点矛塞顿开。他说，有些东西你不可能计较太多。试想想，如果你是 Zhulian 的老板，一间没有负债，现金强稳，盈利标青，你把公司摆上市，都不介意和公众分享盈利，那多拿一点董事费，很过分吗？

更何况，公司一年盈利 7千5百万。才拿不到 5 百万的董事费总和，比起很多亏钱又个人拿上千万的公司好太多了。

你别忘了，辛辛苦苦打下江山，从无到有的是他们。我们只是在适当时机分享它更高的盈利/股息。什么都没做。够了。难不成要退位让你做董事吗？

27/4/07 上市，股价已经从最初 IPO 的 RM1.23 跌至 RM0.90.

这一段时间，公司的盈利反向成长。每个季度都派股息。在马股里，很少有这类型的公司了。以目前的股价水平，报以股息，就可以安稳的领取接近 15% 的回酬。我只要有 600 千放在 Zhulian, 平均每个月就有 7500，可以成为打工老太皇了。

但是，我还没有。。。 ：-（

还好 Zhulian 老板比较低调，不太接受媒体采访。间接导致基金经理懒得写报告，市场就比较看不到它的存在。

以 9 毛钱，Zhulian 的市值为 3亿1千多万。每年制造 7千5百万盈利。大概 4 年多就回本了。而却，Zhulian 的业务已经稳定，不需要太多的 CAPEX 来扩充。赚的钱，自然就发为股息了。Zhulian 的 policy 是最少派 60% 的净利。

3 亿多的市值，其中一亿多是净现金。呵呵。。。

(120) 3大業務盈利蒙塵 分析員逆轉全利資源

（吉隆坡3日訊）今時不同往日，全利資源(QL，7084，主板消費股)三大核心業務風雲變色，原本成為主要推動力的魚肉醬、畜牧和原棕油業務顯著放緩，導致原本明亮的盈利展望迅速逆轉，導致大馬研究分析員大幅下調其財測和評級。全利資源旗下三大核心業務，包括魚肉醬、畜牧和原棕油的成長緩和，盈利貢獻預期大幅受挫，讓其前淨利也即時蒙塵。相比過去6個月的市場評估，分析員都認為，魚肉醬、飼料和原棕油的高售價，及高銷售成長將繼續扶持全利資源；然而經濟衝擊，需求量不如當初，拉低價格和其賺幅。

在8月份期間，亞歐美投資銀行研究主管邱武益就曾提到，魚肉醬需求強勁，意味出口及本地食用量，可推高魚肉醬價格。隨著出口銷售都以美元作單位，該公司能夠從令吉走弱獲益。眼看風勢正往該公司吹，但是，今非昔比，大馬研究分析員認為，其盈利將受到多方面夾擊。

全利資源在週三大熱，成交量從週二的18萬3500股，漲升到99萬3100股，而全天下跌3仙或1.28%，以2.32令吉掛收。年初迄今，該股最高價位是6月2日的2.987令吉，最低則是10月28日寫下的2.08令吉。

魚肉醬價格突暴跌截至現財政年次季，全利資源的魚肉醬銷售表現依舊強勁。惟出乎預料，在今年10月份，其魚肉醬價格暴跌43%，相信是因為日本、新加坡及韓國客戶的需求，大幅減少所引致。有鑒於此，分析員削減2010年的魚肉醬價格預測11%。分析員認為，全利資源將會在本地大力推展其魚肉醬相關產品，以應付海外需求降低的問題。截至今年9月的半年時間內，其魚肉醬業務的盈利增長高達40%，佔集團中期稅前盈利5700萬令吉的48.5%。由於穀粒及大豆售價走低，全利資源的畜牧業務盈利，預計會在2010財政年滑落10至15%。雖然該公司保持平均標高售價6到7%，可是穀粒及大豆的價格劇減40至60%，將把此業務的盈利大幅拉低。

在09財政年上半年，畜牧業務的營運寫下24%的盈利漲幅，達2400萬令吉，並給集團帶來42%的稅前盈利。隨著原棕油價格暴跌到近期每公噸1607令吉的水平，預計全利資源的原棕油業務，將保持低靡。目前，分析員預計旗下沙巴種植部分的搾果廠和入帳額，所貢獻盈利將減少到1250萬令吉。無論如何，這業務的近期貢獻僅達9%。此外，全利資源面臨的風險還包括，印尼盾走弱，或許會導致原本預期可從印尼泗水(Surabaya)的建設中魚肉醬廠，取得的回酬也會隨之稀釋。新廠的建設工程將在2010年1月份竣工，耗資高達800萬美元。

全利資源評級調降大馬研究分析員把全利資源09財政年的盈利預測下修8%，而2010和2011財政年的財測，更是分別大幅調整30%及35%。因此，調整後的淨利預測，將分別是9100萬、8300萬和9100萬令吉。他認為，2010財政年，該公司將首度面對盈利縮減，淨利將在這年減少8%。雖然全利資源管理層重申其25到30%的股息派發政策，惟大馬研究分析員調低其09到2011財政年的盈利預測，所以，每股股息也被調降，09財政年股息預測為8仙，2010財政年為7.5仙，而2011財政年則回升到8仙。相比5年的歷史盈利年複合成長率25%，該公司的成長展望進一步惡化，特別是隨著2010財政年的盈利預測縮減8%。

因此，該分析員把該股的投資評級，從「買進」調低至「賣出」，合理價下修到2令吉，明顯低於之前的3.43令吉。