在星洲看到这篇报道，觉得蛮有意思。。。
Monday, March 30, 2009
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Friday, March 27, 2009
(136) 令人欣慰的海鸥
这样的时期，这样的成绩。。。
还要挑剔的话，恐怕市场也没几个可以青出于蓝了吧。不过，我相信最大的季度表现是末季，也就是海鸥去年最佳的季度表现。
我不认为它还能创造奇迹。不过，只要它能抱持像这一季度的盈利，就能平了去年全年的业绩。
中期已经派发 10 仙股息了，再给个 20-30 仙，或库存股也没多大问题。 反正它本身也是一只牛 - 现金牛。
(135) Article Sharing...
For the average investor, you and me, we're not geniuses so we have to have a financial plan. In view of this, I offer below a few items that we must be aware of if we are serious about making money.
Rule 1: Compounding: One of the most important lessons for living in the modern world is that to survive you've got to have money. But to live (survive) happily, you must have love, health (mental and physical), freedom, intellectual stimulation -- and money. When I taught my kids about money, the first thing I taught them was the use of the "money bible." What's the money bible? Simple, it's a volume of the compounding interest tables.
Compounding is the royal road to riches. Compounding is the safe road, the sure road, and fortunately, anybody can do it. To compound successfully you need the following: perseverance in order to keep you firmly on the savings path. You need intelligence in order to understand what you are doing and why. And you need knowledge of the mathematics tables in order to comprehend the amazing rewards that will come to you if you faithfully follow the compounding road. And, of course, you need time, time to allow the power of compounding to work for you. Remember, compounding only works through time.
But there are two catches in the compounding process. The first is obvious -- compounding may involve sacrifice (you can't spend it and still save it). Second, compounding is boring -- b-o-r-i-n-g. Or I should say it's boring until (after seven or eight years) the money starts to pour in. Then, believe me, compounding becomes very interesting. In fact, it becomes downright fascinating! In order to emphasize the power of compounding, I am including this extraordinary study, courtesy of Market Logic, of Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33306. In this study we assume that investor (B) opens an IRA at age 19. For seven consecutive periods he puts $2,000 in his IRA at an average growth rate of 10% (7% interest plus growth). After seven years this fellow makes NO MORE contributions -- he's finished.
A second investor (A) makes no contributions until age 26 (this is the age when investor B was finished with his contributions) . Then A continues faithfully to contribute $2,000 every year until he's 65 (at the same theoretical 10% rate).
Now study the incredible results. B, who made his contributions earlier and who made only seven contributions, ends up with MORE money than A, who made 40 contributions but at a LATER TIME. The difference in the two is that B had seven more early years of compounding than A. Those seven early years were worth more than all of A's 33 additional contributions.
This is a study that I suggest you show to your kids. It's a study I've lived by, and I can tell you, "It works." You can work your compounding with muni-bonds, with a good money market fund, with T-bills or say with five-year T-notes.
Rule 2: DON'T LOSE MONEY: This may sound naive, but believe me it isn't. If you want to be wealthy, you must not lose money, or I should say must not lose BIG money. Absurd rule, silly rule? Maybe, but MOST PEOPLE LOSE MONEY in disastrous investments, gambling, rotten business deals, greed, poor timing. Yes, after almost five decades of investing and talking to investors, I can tell you that most people definitely DO lose money, lose big time -- in the stock market, in options and futures, in real estate, in bad loans, in mindless gambling, and in their own business.
RULE 3: RICH MAN, POOR MAN: In the investment world the wealthy investor has one major advantage over the little guy, the stock market amateur and the neophyte trader. The advantage that the wealthy investor enjoys is that HE DOESN'T NEED THE MARKETS. I can't begin to tell you what a difference that makes, both in one's mental attitude and in the way one actually handles one's money. The wealthy investor doesn't need the markets, because he already has all the income he needs. He has money coming in via bonds, T-bills, money market funds, stocks and real estate. In other words, the wealthy investor never feels pressured to "make money" in the market.
The wealthy investor tends to be an expert on values. When bonds are cheap and bond yields are irresistibly high, he buys bonds. When stocks are on the bargain table and stock yields are attractive, he buys stocks. When real estate is a great value, he buys real estate. When great art or fine jewelry or gold is on the "give away" table, he buys art or diamonds or gold. In other words, the wealthy investor puts his money where the great values are. And if no outstanding values are available, the wealthy investors wait. He can afford to wait. He has money coming in daily, weekly, monthly. The wealthy investor knows what he is looking for, and he doesn't mind waiting months or even years for his next investment (they call that patience).
But what about the little guy? This fellow always feels pressured to "make money." And in return he's always pressuring the market to "do something" for him. But sadly, the market isn't interested. When the little guy isn't buying stocks offering 1% or 2% yields, he's off to Las Vegas or Atlantic City trying to beat the house at roulette. Or he's spending 20 bucks a week on lottery tickets, or he's "investing" in some crackpot scheme that his neighbor told him about (in strictest confidence, of course). And because the little guy is trying to force the market to do something for him, he's a guaranteed loser. The little guy doesn't understand values so he constantly overpays. He doesn't comprehend the power of compounding, and he doesn't understand money. He's never heard the adage, "He who understands interest -- earns it. He who doesn't understand interest -- pays it." The little guy is the typical American, and he's deeply in debt. The little guy is in hock up to his ears. As a result, he's always sweating -- sweating to make payments on his house, his refrigerator, his car or his lawn mower. He's impatient, and he feels perpetually put upon. He tells himself that he has to make money -- fast. And he dreams of those "big, juicy mega-bucks." In the end, the little guy wastes his money in the market, or he loses his money gambling, or he dribbles it away on senseless schemes. In short, this "money-nerd" spends his life dashing up the financial down-escalator.
But here's the ironic part of it. If, from the beginning, the little guy had adopted a strict policy of never spending more than he made, if he had taken his extra savings and compounded it in intelligent, income-producing securities, then in due time he'd have money coming in daily, weekly, monthly, just like the rich man. The little guy would have become a financial winner, instead of a pathetic loser.
RULE 4: VALUES: The only time the average investor should stray outside the basic compounding system is when a given market offers outstanding value. I judge an investment to be a great value when it offers (a) safety; (b) an attractive return; and (c) a good chance of appreciating in price. At all other times, the compounding route is safer and probably a lot more profitable, at least in the long run.
Rule 1: Compounding: One of the most important lessons for living in the modern world is that to survive you've got to have money. But to live (survive) happily, you must have love, health (mental and physical), freedom, intellectual stimulation -- and money. When I taught my kids about money, the first thing I taught them was the use of the "money bible." What's the money bible? Simple, it's a volume of the compounding interest tables.
Compounding is the royal road to riches. Compounding is the safe road, the sure road, and fortunately, anybody can do it. To compound successfully you need the following: perseverance in order to keep you firmly on the savings path. You need intelligence in order to understand what you are doing and why. And you need knowledge of the mathematics tables in order to comprehend the amazing rewards that will come to you if you faithfully follow the compounding road. And, of course, you need time, time to allow the power of compounding to work for you. Remember, compounding only works through time.
But there are two catches in the compounding process. The first is obvious -- compounding may involve sacrifice (you can't spend it and still save it). Second, compounding is boring -- b-o-r-i-n-g. Or I should say it's boring until (after seven or eight years) the money starts to pour in. Then, believe me, compounding becomes very interesting. In fact, it becomes downright fascinating! In order to emphasize the power of compounding, I am including this extraordinary study, courtesy of Market Logic, of Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33306. In this study we assume that investor (B) opens an IRA at age 19. For seven consecutive periods he puts $2,000 in his IRA at an average growth rate of 10% (7% interest plus growth). After seven years this fellow makes NO MORE contributions -- he's finished.
A second investor (A) makes no contributions until age 26 (this is the age when investor B was finished with his contributions) . Then A continues faithfully to contribute $2,000 every year until he's 65 (at the same theoretical 10% rate).
Now study the incredible results. B, who made his contributions earlier and who made only seven contributions, ends up with MORE money than A, who made 40 contributions but at a LATER TIME. The difference in the two is that B had seven more early years of compounding than A. Those seven early years were worth more than all of A's 33 additional contributions.
This is a study that I suggest you show to your kids. It's a study I've lived by, and I can tell you, "It works." You can work your compounding with muni-bonds, with a good money market fund, with T-bills or say with five-year T-notes.
Rule 2: DON'T LOSE MONEY: This may sound naive, but believe me it isn't. If you want to be wealthy, you must not lose money, or I should say must not lose BIG money. Absurd rule, silly rule? Maybe, but MOST PEOPLE LOSE MONEY in disastrous investments, gambling, rotten business deals, greed, poor timing. Yes, after almost five decades of investing and talking to investors, I can tell you that most people definitely DO lose money, lose big time -- in the stock market, in options and futures, in real estate, in bad loans, in mindless gambling, and in their own business.
RULE 3: RICH MAN, POOR MAN: In the investment world the wealthy investor has one major advantage over the little guy, the stock market amateur and the neophyte trader. The advantage that the wealthy investor enjoys is that HE DOESN'T NEED THE MARKETS. I can't begin to tell you what a difference that makes, both in one's mental attitude and in the way one actually handles one's money. The wealthy investor doesn't need the markets, because he already has all the income he needs. He has money coming in via bonds, T-bills, money market funds, stocks and real estate. In other words, the wealthy investor never feels pressured to "make money" in the market.
The wealthy investor tends to be an expert on values. When bonds are cheap and bond yields are irresistibly high, he buys bonds. When stocks are on the bargain table and stock yields are attractive, he buys stocks. When real estate is a great value, he buys real estate. When great art or fine jewelry or gold is on the "give away" table, he buys art or diamonds or gold. In other words, the wealthy investor puts his money where the great values are. And if no outstanding values are available, the wealthy investors wait. He can afford to wait. He has money coming in daily, weekly, monthly. The wealthy investor knows what he is looking for, and he doesn't mind waiting months or even years for his next investment (they call that patience).
But what about the little guy? This fellow always feels pressured to "make money." And in return he's always pressuring the market to "do something" for him. But sadly, the market isn't interested. When the little guy isn't buying stocks offering 1% or 2% yields, he's off to Las Vegas or Atlantic City trying to beat the house at roulette. Or he's spending 20 bucks a week on lottery tickets, or he's "investing" in some crackpot scheme that his neighbor told him about (in strictest confidence, of course). And because the little guy is trying to force the market to do something for him, he's a guaranteed loser. The little guy doesn't understand values so he constantly overpays. He doesn't comprehend the power of compounding, and he doesn't understand money. He's never heard the adage, "He who understands interest -- earns it. He who doesn't understand interest -- pays it." The little guy is the typical American, and he's deeply in debt. The little guy is in hock up to his ears. As a result, he's always sweating -- sweating to make payments on his house, his refrigerator, his car or his lawn mower. He's impatient, and he feels perpetually put upon. He tells himself that he has to make money -- fast. And he dreams of those "big, juicy mega-bucks." In the end, the little guy wastes his money in the market, or he loses his money gambling, or he dribbles it away on senseless schemes. In short, this "money-nerd" spends his life dashing up the financial down-escalator.
But here's the ironic part of it. If, from the beginning, the little guy had adopted a strict policy of never spending more than he made, if he had taken his extra savings and compounded it in intelligent, income-producing securities, then in due time he'd have money coming in daily, weekly, monthly, just like the rich man. The little guy would have become a financial winner, instead of a pathetic loser.
RULE 4: VALUES: The only time the average investor should stray outside the basic compounding system is when a given market offers outstanding value. I judge an investment to be a great value when it offers (a) safety; (b) an attractive return; and (c) a good chance of appreciating in price. At all other times, the compounding route is safer and probably a lot more profitable, at least in the long run.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
(133) Resort，可以了。。
云顶进入小林时代，我并不喜欢它。最大的原因莫过于众所周知的 “一亿年薪” 的董事费。
其实，自从几年前小林开始接管云顶，其所主张的一些投资并不很理想。丽星邮轮就是其中最大的失误。连年亏损。
随着 Resort 对其股权的脱售而造成末季的巨额亏损，其股价也被抛售至相当吸引的水平。其实，撇除对丽星邮轮的亏损，Resort 全年的业绩是更上一层的。
Resort 的每季营运，大约可以带来 $300-400 mil。手中还握着 45亿的现金。这头现金牛也造成市场一直揣测小林要把它私有化。
随着种种的利空和近期的风暴，难得地把它打入单位数 PE 的诱人价格。
我来了。。。
其实，自从几年前小林开始接管云顶，其所主张的一些投资并不很理想。丽星邮轮就是其中最大的失误。连年亏损。
随着 Resort 对其股权的脱售而造成末季的巨额亏损，其股价也被抛售至相当吸引的水平。其实，撇除对丽星邮轮的亏损，Resort 全年的业绩是更上一层的。
Resort 的每季营运，大约可以带来 $300-400 mil。手中还握着 45亿的现金。这头现金牛也造成市场一直揣测小林要把它私有化。
随着种种的利空和近期的风暴，难得地把它打入单位数 PE 的诱人价格。
我来了。。。
Sunday, March 8, 2009
(133) 朋友，你的 cash folw 还行吗？
失业率节节上升。在大企业工作的打工皇帝们，会不会担心随时饭碗不保？
我公司在风暴期间，一直无时无刻的提醒全球员工一句话：
“ 有盈利的公司难保不会倒闭，惟有保持 strong positive cash flow 的公司才能生存。”
其实，不只企业如此，个人的理财观，也应该由此建立为基点。如果将以上的那一段反映在个人，或一般打工仔的日常生活，大意应该就是这样：
“ 工作的收入不一定是长远的；惟有保持 strong positive cash flow 才能生活无忧。”
我有一位同事，36 岁，工钱之高，令我乍舌。简直就是打工皇帝。
可是，当风暴来袭时，公司说全球将裁员 6000 人，他担心的程度不亚于我。
他说，我不像你，外面还有自己的生意，投资方面也比我积极。我依靠的就是我在工作上的成绩。
昨晚，我太太的车又抛锚了。上两个月抛锚时，本来想去换车。可是，还是搁置了。
这次抛锚，念头又来了。。。
但是，最终还是放弃了。还是选择把车的心藏换了，一次过的花费几千块，好过背负几年的车贷。
原因是：我喜欢稳健的现金流。
车，对我来说，真的是第二老婆。我很爱它。
可是，我知道，我现在还没有能力为了它而出轨。
我公司在风暴期间，一直无时无刻的提醒全球员工一句话：
“ 有盈利的公司难保不会倒闭，惟有保持 strong positive cash flow 的公司才能生存。”
其实，不只企业如此，个人的理财观，也应该由此建立为基点。如果将以上的那一段反映在个人，或一般打工仔的日常生活，大意应该就是这样：
“ 工作的收入不一定是长远的；惟有保持 strong positive cash flow 才能生活无忧。”
我有一位同事，36 岁，工钱之高，令我乍舌。简直就是打工皇帝。
可是，当风暴来袭时，公司说全球将裁员 6000 人，他担心的程度不亚于我。
他说，我不像你，外面还有自己的生意，投资方面也比我积极。我依靠的就是我在工作上的成绩。
昨晚，我太太的车又抛锚了。上两个月抛锚时，本来想去换车。可是，还是搁置了。
这次抛锚，念头又来了。。。
但是，最终还是放弃了。还是选择把车的心藏换了，一次过的花费几千块，好过背负几年的车贷。
原因是：我喜欢稳健的现金流。
车，对我来说，真的是第二老婆。我很爱它。
可是，我知道，我现在还没有能力为了它而出轨。
Sunday, March 1, 2009
(132) 不能只看表面的财报
很多时候，单看 P&L, Balance Sheet or Cash Flow, 并不能仔细地了解公司的整体营运情况。要清楚地了解，最重要的是配合财报里的全部 footnote.
对一直有看我的 blog 的朋友，我很抱歉。因为最近我真的开始忙了，没有太多时间详细地分解。
对于 Maybulk Q4 的业绩，看是盈利蹉跌很多，但如果你详细看完报告的 footnote, 其实不然。这也是我为何对它的业绩感到欣慰。
还好有人将其中的重点发表了出来：
“Other operating income for Q4 reported a loss of RM26.9m compared to Q3’s net income of RM93.1m. This is attributable to mark-to market provisions of RM46.7m for the Group’s currency position and its’ quoted equities investments.”
其实，这个季度的低盈利只是个假像，主要是管理层为未来外汇潜在亏损和股票投资做出很大的后备（provision）。约有4千六百万。如扣除这个provision,这个季度的eps就有5 sen.。
The operating profit for FY2008 of RM338.8m reports an 11% decrease against the previous year’s RM379.5m. This was improved by other operating income of “RM219.5m, comprising mainly of gains from sale of vessels (RM327.3m) and interestincome (RM36.4m) and adverse mark-to-market provisions for the Group’s quoted investments (RM93.6m) and foreign currency basket (RM48.6m). Administrative overheads decrease by 9.2%.”
扣除mark to market provision 给外汇和股票，其实MAybulk全年的eps 有将近60sen。但然，这是乐观的看法，而且股票和外汇在未来也可能会增值的。所以我觉得管理层派发30sen股息一点都不过分。
对一直有看我的 blog 的朋友，我很抱歉。因为最近我真的开始忙了，没有太多时间详细地分解。
对于 Maybulk Q4 的业绩，看是盈利蹉跌很多，但如果你详细看完报告的 footnote, 其实不然。这也是我为何对它的业绩感到欣慰。
还好有人将其中的重点发表了出来：
“Other operating income for Q4 reported a loss of RM26.9m compared to Q3’s net income of RM93.1m. This is attributable to mark-to market provisions of RM46.7m for the Group’s currency position and its’ quoted equities investments.”
其实，这个季度的低盈利只是个假像，主要是管理层为未来外汇潜在亏损和股票投资做出很大的后备（provision）。约有4千六百万。如扣除这个provision,这个季度的eps就有5 sen.。
The operating profit for FY2008 of RM338.8m reports an 11% decrease against the previous year’s RM379.5m. This was improved by other operating income of “RM219.5m, comprising mainly of gains from sale of vessels (RM327.3m) and interestincome (RM36.4m) and adverse mark-to-market provisions for the Group’s quoted investments (RM93.6m) and foreign currency basket (RM48.6m). Administrative overheads decrease by 9.2%.”
扣除mark to market provision 给外汇和股票，其实MAybulk全年的eps 有将近60sen。但然，这是乐观的看法，而且股票和外汇在未来也可能会增值的。所以我觉得管理层派发30sen股息一点都不过分。
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